Ave Game 2 Turn 9


#41

Then I think we should go with Cor’s suggestion.


#42

Right. So they know we don’t have any sniper downside, and if they killed the runner with their heavy, they guessed we don’t have any scrambler upside. They should know we have a scrambler just right there. Hmmm :frowning: unless they think we spawned a soldier and moved it near the wit tile?


#43

DO NOT TRY TO VIEW THESE ON OSN OR POST THEM THERE. YOU’LL BE PUBLISHING OUR POSITION TO OUR COMPETITION!!!

Use this prefix to view in outwitters:

outwitters://viewgame?id=

ag5vdXR3aXR0ZXJzZ2FtZXIRCxIIR2FtZVJvb20YieuHBAw : medic left of spawn, sniper right of spawn - win

ag5vdXR3aXR0ZXJzZ2FtZXIRCxIIR2FtZVJvb20Y-ZmIBAw : boosted soldier right of medic - win

If we attack, the game will be over very soon. What they spawned and where they put it determines who wins.


#44

Here is the best I’ve come up with if they have a scrambler at F2 or D3 (anywhere else we can kill):

scrambler: F8 -> C7 -> scramble C6
runner: spawn I5 -> F4 -> attack E4
heavy: F6 -> E5 -> kill E4
soldier: C6 -> D6
runner: E8 -> C6
soldier: I3 -> F5,F6,G5,H4,G6 (probably F5)
medic: H6 -> E7,E8
9 wits total

I don’t see a way they can kill our scrambler with this position. And I still think we are in a reasonable position with whatever they do.

If we attack and they have a boosted soldier at B5, I haven’t found any good recovery. We’d lose. We can handle any other case but that one (or heavy there), I think.

[hr]
This game makes for some pretty amazing puzzles on both sides.

I still think we should take the risk and attack, even though we might lose very quickly. The alternative is that we’ll be disadvantaged by retreating and we’ll be more likely to lose than win. If we make the wrong choice, which one will we regret more?


#45

Yeah…

By the way I didn’t review the replay last night, didn’t have ipad with me and I couldn’t view the game on iphone (doesn’t let you use two devices for same turn). Will take a longer look this evening.


#46

WARNING!

Thrutchy again the replays appeard on OSN website! I guess they are those two last. Is there any spy around here or what? :confused:

Or maybe someone of us has been watching them through OSN and they are saved automatically


#47

— Begin quote from ‘jesusfuentesh’ pid=‘57442’ dateline=‘1375487710’

WARNING!

Thrutchy again the replays appeard on OSN website! I guess they are those two last. Is there any spy around here or what? :confused:

Or maybe someone of us has been watching them through OSN and they are saved automatically

— End quote

You should probably assume that any replays you post here are on or will make their way to OSN.

Playing these simulations is definitely useful, but maybe it’s best to just share your conclusions rather than posting replays, or else information could end up in enemy hands


#48

I made a request to code penguin to remove the offending links. I assume it might have been someone new who didn’t know better. I put a big warning in the post above.

It sure would be nice to be able to post outwitters-only links on the forum. Especially in secret forums.


#49

— Begin quote from ‘Cor13:4’ pid=‘57323’ dateline=‘1375365068’

Sorry, I don’t know what I was thinking, if you want to try some variation, maybe do:

  1. Take 4hp soldier in middle with heavy @ E5 and 2hp runner at F4.
  2. Assuming we see nothing new…
  3. Spawn and buff soldier to F6
  4. Move scrambler to G6
  5. Move soldier to G5

I think this claims middle for us, our scrambler is safe and can defend or attack. Our scrambler can reach whatever they take the heavy with.

But there is probably some counter that would be bad for us…but doing something like this is something to consider.

— End quote

Anybody tested this? I like the idea of doing something like this as a backup plan to a big attack. We’d start with killing the 4 soldier with heavy and a new runner rather than our current one. If the worst-case scenario is still possible, we get in a position like cor suggested except we’ll have a puny 2hp runner instead of 4hp soldier. We could also move the medic forward to boost the other soldier and also use it as another shield for our scrambler (maybe to g5 instead of g6).

If we see the newly spawned unit, we do a full attack with scrambling the soldier.

[hr]
Code penguin deleted the replays. Thank him if you get a chance!


#50

This is a good move if they spawn a scrambler to defend. If they turtle with soldiers, they should be able to fend this off.


#51

— Begin quote from ‘Thrutchy’ pid=‘57455’ dateline=‘1375502652’

— Begin quote from ‘Cor13:4’ pid=‘57323’ dateline=‘1375365068’

Sorry, I don’t know what I was thinking, if you want to try some variation, maybe do:

  1. Take 4hp soldier in middle with heavy @ E5 and 2hp runner at F4.
  2. Assuming we see nothing new…
  3. Spawn and buff soldier to F6
  4. Move scrambler to G6
  5. Move soldier to G5

I think this claims middle for us, our scrambler is safe and can defend or attack. Our scrambler can reach whatever they take the heavy with.

But there is probably some counter that would be bad for us…but doing something like this is something to consider.

— End quote

Anybody tested this? I like the idea of doing something like this as a backup plan to a big attack. We’d start with killing the 4 soldier with heavy and a new runner rather than our current one. If the worst-case scenario is still possible, we get in a position like cor suggested except we’ll have a puny 2hp runner instead of 4hp soldier. We could also move the medic forward to boost the other soldier and also use it as another shield for our scrambler (maybe to g5 instead of g6).

If we see the newly spawned unit, we do a full attack with scrambling the soldier.

[hr]
Code penguin deleted the replays. Thank him if you get a chance!

— End quote

I did. It wasn’t that good though. We can try it out again if you are willing. I may have missed something


#52

One suggestion for replays is to create a dummy account so that even if it does show up on OSN they wouldn’t know necessarily its you?


#53

I played with jesusfuentesh on my alt, but it didn’t matter because we didn’t post any replays


#54

Our planning strategies are getting complicated in this game lol[hr]
The game is at 3 days today since its the 3rd so lets think fast


#55

I feel like attacking is a coin flip and they know we have few units in addition to trading runners, so they should suspect a scrambler exactly where we put it.

If I were them, I would be tempted to spend all those excess wits on a scrambler, but I think their best move should have been to just spawn and boost a soldier without moving it. Almost every unit of their’s is within range of a spawned scrambler, so they could be planning that as a counter.

As an alternative, they know that they could safely place a scrambler at E3, which might be preparation to attack down the middle. In that case, I don’t think they will strike until they have another soldier to reinforce the middle though.

I think our safest move is to simply put a boosted soldier next to the heavy, which would bank lots more wits for more scrambler shenanigans should we be able to bait them into an attack.


#56

For either of those cases, if we attack, we will win in a couple turns, I think. Earlier in this thread, I did a decent analysis of all the possible spawns and how we would fair in an attack. Only boosted soldier (or heavy) at B5 (behind the 3hp soldier) is a major problem. A scrambler at F2 or D3 looked unknown, but I think we have a reasonable solution where we keep our scrambler and we seem advantaged.

Here is how we would handle the cases you mentioned (after the scrambling the soldier and killing other soldier with heavy and new runner):

Boosted soldier on spawn: scrambled soldier to B4 or B5; wit runner to C6; hit base if at B4
Scrambler at E3: scrambled soldier to E4 and kill scrambler; wit runner to B4, B5, or C6

They won’t be able to get to our scrambler. There is only really problematic case (boosted soldier at B5). How likely do you think that is? If it is less than 50%, I think we should attack.
[hr]
Actually, since we are the underdogs (they have 3 current or former #1 players), our odds of winning the game has always been lower than 50%. If we back down, well be slightly disadvantaged and our odds go even lower. So even if the odds that they made the B5 play are slightly higher than 50%, we should probably attack.

Having another ST come in and suggest likely moves of there’s that doesn’t include our bad scenario makes me think the odds of this scenario are lower than 50%.


#57

I think we need to make a decision soon. If we scramble the soldier, we will need time to discuss what to do with the rest of our turn whatever the case. And we will be at 4 days tomorrow afternoon. As of this moment we are still at 2 days, but it will be 3 soon. So, I think we should make a decision on whether to scramble, and get on with it.

I am currently leaning towards going for it. I am feeling lucky…and I think it’s less likely that they have a soldier behind the soldier than the scenario where they do. And I don’t think we can afford to retreat…would be a big waste of wits and allow them to get an advantage.

Let’s try to come to something resembling consensus by this evening.


#58

If all they did what move a boosted soldier there, then they banked 10 wits if i counted correctly

Do you think they know where our scrambler is? When we spawned a scrambler, the only safe spots we could’ve put it were F8 H7 and K4 (any where else, they would’ve seen it with their runner). If they think our scrambler is on F8, then their two soldiers can kill it. They could also spawn a runner and look to make sure if we leave it there and don’t attack[hr]
Actually, could they think we have a scrambler in the first place?


#59

Thrutchy wanted me to put this image here:

Notes:

  • I won
  • At the end I realized putting the medic on E8 was unnecessary.
  • We might consider leaving the 1hp soldier on C6 and putting hp runner on D6

#60

— Begin quote from ‘TheGoldenGriffin’ pid=‘57482’ dateline=‘1375550293’

If all they did what move a boosted soldier there, then they banked 10 wits if i counted correctly

Do you think they know where our scrambler is? When we spawned a scrambler, the only safe spots we could’ve put it were F8 H7 and K4 (any where else, they would’ve seen it with their runner). If they think our scrambler is on F8, then their two soldiers can kill it. They could also spawn a runner and look to make sure if we leave it there and don’t attack[hr]
Actually, could they think we have a scrambler in the first place?

— End quote

I think they should know, that runner saw the heal, then no unit leave, then a runner spawned. They may think the scrambler is tucked behind the medic, but I would have to assume they have run through the same scenarios and are planning for an aggressive posture.

Unless they think we are hiding a soldier somewhere, which would be weird as well and provoke a counter-productive response.

Your observation would also be a good reason to put a soldier behind that other soldier on the left.