Potential user base speculation


Nintendo has shipped 5 million Switch handhelds and is estimated to ship additional 5 million till end of the year 2017. When Hex Gambit is released there is 10 million consoles that can run the game. Turn base games that require serious brain activity are not the most popular ones.
What kind of sales numbers can be expected?



Well, it all depends on the marketing. I haven’t seen many Steam games blow up like crazy but it’s a pretty big platform. We’ve got around 300 backers on Kickstarter which will be the EA core user base and depending on how amazed we’re going to be by the game it’ll grow exponentially.
The Switch might bring a lot of users to Hex Gambit as it lacks proper games currently, and certainly doesn’t seem to have anything in the hardcore Strategy genre yet.


I think it really depends on how the Kickstarter ends up going (whether or not it gets a bunch more at the end)


On Steam 300 hardcore players tweak or abandon Hex Gambit. Sales of thousands is not enough, OML has to break 10000 units mark. And more. I have no idea how many units Space Food Truck sold, but SteamSpy shows about 10000 owners. Does that translate to 150000 dollars?
I have read that porting SFT to tablets (iOS and Android) was not economically feasible. Players were complaining that there was no mobile (iPhone) version, only tablet (iPad) version. And evidently they were not willing to pay, not even the half price compared to Steam price of SFT. Yet SFT is difficult game to sell, in my opinion. Tilt to live series and Outwitters are much simpler to explain. And to pick up and play.
I believe Hex Gambit has vastly better sales expectations than Space Food Truck ever had. And it looks to me that gameplay should scale to any size of screen. There are probably 200 million iPads in active use. There are over billion iOS devices in use. And Android has even bigger user base. Every humanbeing who plays has an phone. Excluding that market puzzles me. Especially since I have lived from arcade to mobile only gaming.
I hope that Hex Gambit delivers unique and entertaining experience. Something that Steam community embraces. And OML beats their sales records set by first Tilt to Life. My guess is that first game is still the biggest moneymaker for One Man Left.
But back to me wondering what can be achieved on Nintendo Switch. Can Advance Wars kind of success to be reached?

There was 80 million Gameboy Advance units sold, therefore huge success turnbase strategy captured almost 1% of the potential market.


A thing worth noting is that the switch early bird copies sold out before steam


That’s interesting, I thought that consoles were starting to become less popular


It is cheaper to buy Nintendo Switch than alternative solutions if you have Macintosh.


Amazon says Nintendo Switches cost around $380; I believe you can get a computer for significantly cheaper than that


The problem with mobile isn’t that the userbase is too small, it’s that monetization expectations are different for mobile users. On mobile people expect games to either be very cheap ($1-$5 unless AAA) or free. Outwitters didn’t work as a free game so Hex Gambit would probably be ~$5 on mobile. Makes it a lot less worth the effort to port.

EDIT: of course it would be awesome to see Hex Gambit on mobile, but I’m just speculating as to why OML is hesitant


1% of Nintendo’s 10 million is 100 000. And 1% from a billion (American English) Apple iOS users is 10 million. Turn base strategy on mobile is very natural. And revenue is on faster paced games. Or farming games like astonishingly successful Supercell has shown.
I see OML console debut more as an challenge to two men team than wise economical decision. I can see the enormous cool factor. And there is still window to be among first titles on a new console. Tilt to live hit new market with great success.
Cross platform play is still something that we do not know if it can be achieved. If not, Nintendo Switch players will be very lonely. But I am sure that OML did research before announcing and there is at least a possibility to match Steam and Switch players against each others. Weather OML gets it working remains to be seen.
As an iOS only gamer now a days, playing on work Macintosh with Steam is a stretch. Buying new console next to PS3 and AppleTV is doable, but buying and maintaining gaming PC that can run Unreal Engine fluently is out of the question. Also I like my hardware silent. And gaming mobile.
I can agree that OML’s decision about Steam makes perfect sense. I do not like that I was excluded as a player. But I agree OML did wisely. I can’t see Nintendo Switch as a bigger money maker than mobile would have been.


I wonder. Would sales improve if the characters had an optional texture theme where they are all wearing tight jean cutoffs?


That’s the level above golden few